*nod* I share your assessment of point 1 (again, I merely know where I fit in the bell curve) and tbh observation often does seem to support your point 2 (though I don’t think that’s one I tend to have in my own mind - my guesses make no sense sometimes).

I agree completely that neither of those says a blessed thing about any specific person.

If I see some stranger at a bus stop, and I know zilch, I have guesses. Most of these I’ve not been very conscious of. As I get to know a person better those will be confirmed or not, sometimes even shown to be massively blatantly wrong. But it’s interesting to examine what I have as a starting point.